The recent revelation of a trove of top secret and confidential files related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the defense department assessment of the war situation is a concerning matter. Of course. We cannot be comfortable in this world if bad actors know what we are planning, and what we see as weaknesses. I am not a pollyanna. I am naturally resistant to our government keeping secrets from us, but I am certain that some secrecy must be maintained. We do have adversaries in this world, and those people would like to know where and how they can best bring harm to us.
I’ve discussed this before, but I will briefly state that two main worldviews are preparing for conflict. One side is us. On our side is the idea that power should be spread out amongst the people far enough to prevent the concentration that brings tyranny. Leaders are elected and need to be held accountable by the people.
The other side thinks that centralized power in the hands of an effective single leader is the model for successful nations. The chief problem with their side is that centralized power is difficult to change, and therefore more prone to tyranny. We have countless examples of this throughout history, and it was the direct cause of our own efforts to emerge as an independent nation.
The dictators of the world know that our desire to see democratic style government spread throughout the world is a direct threat to their power. Can you even imagine Kim Jong Un relinquishing his power in favor of democratic reforms? The same is true of Xi, Putin, and others. These dictators are acting in their own personal self-interest, rather than the interests of their countries. So yes, they want to know our weaknesses so that they may better direct their efforts to weaken our democracy.
This is one reason these dictators all liked Trump. He was (and remains) on a quest for personal power. Trump is the would be dictator that they can deal with. Because he puts his own interests ahead of the country’s, he will not step in to aid other democracies that are being attacked or threatened by the authoritarians. That’s why they tried to help him, and why they flattered and bribed him, and why they (most likely) got dirt on him to use when his courage flagged. They also liked him because he is a buffoon.
So they try to spy on us. And since their worldview is a threat to world democracy and therefore a threat to our nation, we spy on them too.
In fact, the whole of the intelligence world is an elaborate game of deceit. Truth is so important that, as Winston Churchill said, “In wartime, truth is so precious she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies.”
Hiding truths that could advantage our adversaries is done in many ways. Yes, having top secret clearances and restricting access is part of this. But letting lies emerge that masquerade as the truth is also a part of this. Disinformation and misinformation are as important as genuine information.
I remember my time as senior third officer on the SS Cape Florida, tied to the wharf at Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia during Operation Desert Shield and the beginning of Operation Desert Storm. We would listen to the radio and hear these pundits discussing the leaks about our plans of attack. Some said amphibious, some said by ground from the west, and others said up the middle. Still others said these were all misinformation. As myself and other officers listened to these radio talking heads, our conversation revolved around whether we would launch a ground attack and where it would go. One of the engineering officers was apoplectic that these radio broadcasters were so openly discussing possible plans. “Why don’t you just tell Saddam what we’re going to do!”
This sort of conversation went on for days, with each day bringing some new leak of information, or suggestions of the best approach.
Finally one day as we listened to yet another “informed opinion” that engineering office said, “I don’t know anymore which of these things are true.” To which I responded, “What do you think is going through Saddam Hussein’s mind right now?”
There had been so much information and disinformation told and speculated about, with so many obvious lies, and others not so obvious, that it became fairly impossible to make an intelligent guess as to what we would do and when. The intelligence plan had worked.
And later, when we were narrowly missed by a SCUD missile, armed forces radio reported it had missed our area by ten miles. “They got that wrong,” blurted out the Able Seaman that was on my watch. I said, “well, if we assume that Iraq has people listening to this radio station, then it probably wouldn’t be a good idea to tell them how close they were.” The young sailor grasped my meaning. All listening to the other side would tell you is what they want you to hear. And then you don’t know which of the messages is the truth. Was that the truth, or a member of the bodyguard of lies.
Today I am listening and reading about these leaks with much interest. I am aghast as anyone that a person with such clearances would seek to release them and jeopardize the intelligence sources we have around the world, and risk bringing harm to Ukraine or aid to Russia. But I am also aware of the distinct possibility that nonesuch thing has happened, and that this is part of that whole misinformation game. Let them have enough truth that they trust the source, then confuse them with falsehoods and alternate facts.
And while we have greater access to information because of our free press, it isn’t beyond our intelligence agencies to use that path to confuse the adversary.
Is Ukraine weakened and facing shortages? Or is this a ploy to lure Russia into making a mistake?
And how would I know if these “leaks” were real or fabricated? How about real but loaded with phony stuff too? How about partly real and partly fake?
In truth I have no idea. And that is the point.
Don’t let the assumption that American openness has led to an intelligence dump. And don’t let the canniness of our spymasters fool us into thinking that we don’t have bad actors within that community. We put a lot of effort into discovering moles. But once we have found them, the next step is to decide if we arrest them or use them as tools.
I’ll keep listening and reading with much interest. But I’m not going to forget the larger lessons I’ve learned.
We don’t know what we don’t know about what we thought we knew and thought we didn’t know.