Tensions are mounting along the border between Russia and Ukraine. It is quite possible that Russia will invade Ukraine. Their goal is to create a Ukrainian state that is aligned with and a puppet of Russia.
It is not a secret that Putin wants to recreate the borders of the former Soviet Union. He has said this, in so many words, numerous times.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so no alliance exists that would compel us to defend it with military force. But, we have committed ourselves to defending their territorial integrity, and enforcing the international agreements to allow each country to make its own decision about their leadership, as well as political and economic alliances. The US has unequivocally stated the intent of NATO to use extraordinary economic sanctions against Russia if they do invade Ukraine. Sanctions that would cripple the Russian economy.
In truth this would be happening for certain had Trump been reelected to the Presidency. His nationalistic stance and favorable attitude toward Russia and their President Putin, would have been a green light for Putin, and it is likely that Trump would have tried to pull out of NATO had they insisted on responding to any invasion.
Over in the Pacific region, it is President Xi of China who plots to invade (if necessary) Taiwan in order to bring them back under the rule of the mainland. This too would be certain had Trump been reelected.
The question for those autocrats is do they go in anyway? Or wait to see if the power in the US switches in November’s election.
China will likely wait.
Russia may not. And this becomes more concerning to the US if he does. Putin has long worked to sabotage democracy in the US through fifth columnists and online agitation. He supported and encouraged Trump in his run for the White House because he understood the divisive nature of the man, and knew that win or lose it would sow distrust in our elections and in national leadership.
Today there are huge numbers of Americans who trust Putin in Russia more than Democratic and moderate Republican leadership in the US. Many more are unwittingly aiding this effort by their entrance into the cult of personality surrounding Donald Trump. An unknown number have arms and intend to operate as an insurgency to further the goal of a right wing dictatorship built around white, evangelical Christian values.
It is entirely possible that Putin intends to stoke that base, either through proxies, Trump, or a combination of both, to launch a civil conflict in the US that would be enough of a distraction that we would not be able to support military adventures in defense of Ukraine, or even NATO allies that should end up involved.
Trump, for his part, is up to his neck in legal troubles, both civil and criminal, and will very likely be charged this year. It is my estimation that his efforts for the last three years have been to avoid accountability for his wrongdoing, and has been using the threat of violence by his acolytes as his main tool to save his skin. He has made a habit of not backing down when cornered, and could well use the aforementioned threats of civil unrest to try and regain power. If this fails he will likely flee the country.
Should Russia move forward with an invasion of Ukraine, it is my opinion that he is expecting such unrest in the US to follow as cover.
In the 1930s, the rise of fascism around the world and in the US made the climb out of the Great Depression difficult. President Roosevelt was able to reinvigorate democracy by taking the fight to the fascists. The situation today is similar, but not the same. I am not certain that a war against Russia and/or China would result in the country coming together, or whether conspiracies about false-flags would embolden the far right. We might see a comparison in Tsarist Russia a century ago. There the Tsar was making reforms towards modernity and representation for the people, but the radical communists were more vocal. Russian involvement in WWI was not popular, and did not unite the people. It actually aided the revolutionaries in their efforts to overthrow the royal family and bring about a communist government in Russia.
Some wise historians and political science experts have said that we may be on the verge of a modern day Sarajevo moment. It was there in 1914 when Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated. The act which sparked the start of The Great War.
We could well be knocking on that door today, and I do not know if the outcome will be more like the Russian revolution, or more like the flourishing of democracy that followed WWII.
It depends on if we have a Pearl Harbor like attack, and if the people believe it.