And China will invade Taiwan.
The leaders of these two countries have territorial ambitions that are plain to see. Xi, in China intends to be the most significant leader of that country in the modern age, not merely this generation. He has made himself President for life in a country where only the party that he controls has any vote in who leads them. And he has made it clear that Hong Kong and Taiwan will comply with the rules set by the PRC.
To make sure this isn’t missed, upon the rise of Mao and the creation of the People’s Republic of China, the nationalists fled to Taiwan where they continued the Republic of China. Both places see China as one country, but with two different political systems. The ROC Taiwan, for all its faults, is democratic. The PROC, on the mainland is not.
Xi is cracking down on democratic institutions in the formally independent Hong Kong, as well as anywhere else in China that it pokes its nose out. And it will not be deterred to putting that same thumb of control on the exiled people in Taiwan. Nothing short of Xi’s death will stop him from taking that step.
Over to his west, Putin, the ex KGB man, now has a similar set up. Ostensibly a democratic country, Putin has so clamped down on opposition in Russia that he is effectively a permanent ruler in that country. He wished to expand Russia to the former borders of the Soviet Union, and nothing short of his death will stop him from trying.
In both cases the autocrats have gained their power by allowing oligarchs to flourish so long as they do not oppose the leaders. And by creating a lock on elections by either eliminated or marginalizing opposition political parties.
This is precisely the model that the current advocates of modern fascism are following in the United States.
As I write this, we are following the Congressional investigation into January 6, 2021, when rioters broke into the US Capitol in an attempt to stop the certification of Joe Biden as the winner of the Presidential election the previous November. There is much to be written about this, but the short of it is that this appears to have been a coordinated effort to overthrow the will of the people and reinstall Donald Trump for another term. It is becoming clear that this plot was supported by President Trump, and included many other prominent figures.
The oligarch part is still there.
The billionaires who control vast empires of manufacturing, media, pharmaceutical, and other industries, are still hedging there bets in case the coup (that continues behind the scenes) works. They can see from watching China and Russia that they will only keep their power if they comply with the dictator. They know what happens to oligarchs that oppose.
And they also can see that America is moving in the direction of Europe politically. We are gradually becoming a social democracy. And the majority of the people want them and their companies to pay a greater share of the burden of supporting the country and its infrastructure, both physical and personal. The whole of us, otherwise known as The People, increasingly want larger social and economic safety nets. Universal medical care, secure pensions, standardized wages, liberal vacations and family leave, and other benefits that would require the billionaires and corporations to pay a significantly larger portion of the cost. And, as it may not be a surprise to the reader, those folks don’t want to pay.
These are the economic (if not actual) scions of those robber barons of a previous time, not gone, not controlled, but revitalized in the country by the political influence of the far right.
If you wonder why so few of the billionaires are vocal in opposition to the party that is trying to sweep away democracy, it is because they don’t want to alienate that party should they be successful. It would be a win for them.
But as with those other countries where this has already happened, the path will follow previous iterations of fascism. It will come to war. First civil and then foreign. Destruction and ruin are in the future should we fail to stop it. It is time for the would be oligarchs to get in line, and go all in defending democracy.