We are seeing the manifestation of the problem of anti-democratic government. The idea that Russia is a democracy is laughable. It exists in a notional concept only, with anyone mounting even the slightest threat to Putin’s monopoly on power being arrested, banned from running, or killed outright.
What followed Stalin’s consolidation of power, and Hitler’s, and Mussolini’s, and whomever else you want to name; is the establishment of a government of rubber stamps to whatever the dictator wishes. Those who make up the operation of the government do so at the whim of the dictator, almost never daring to challenge even the worst ideas. And any disagreement with those ideas is exploited by other members who will attack that voice to curry favor and demonstrate loyalty.
Sycophancy will take over the ranks below the dictator, and the goal will turn from bettering the nation to appeasing and applauding the boss.
The boss himself, having gained power by corrupt and treacherous means, will make keeping power his priority, and will assume all those below him are just as corrupt and willing to do him harm to gain power for themselves. This only reinforces the threat of anyone who disagrees.
Soon, all below him are more concerned with the appearance of loyalty than the functioning of their departments.
Here we have Putin blinded to the reality of his appeal both beyond and within his borders. His rigging of all elections and destruction of opposition candidates has wrongly convinced him of his own popularity. While he certainly has supporters, he has a large part of his population – perhaps even a majority – who merely tolerate him as inevitable. He is like a king, and to remove him is more costly than to live under his rule.
But this now may change.
And he is blinded to the reality of his military competence. His armies are mostly conscripts with little desire to attack their neighbors. Especially those so much like themselves. And they are soldiers who have far less training than needed, and far poorer planners than a modern army ought to have. These too are part of the corruption that follows a corrupt leader. The military is also led by those currying favor of Putin. They tell him constantly how great everything is, and how well trained their units are, because this is easier than telling him the truth, which is that they are not as good as western militaries. They make propaganda films about their macho soldiers and then believe their own hype. Meanwhile they siphon off great amounts of the budget and stick it in their own bank accounts. Why are they corrupt too? Because they weren’t promoted because of competence, but because of loyalty and willingness to appease the boss.
And blinded to the attention and willingness of foreign powers to respond to his aggression, he presumes he can proceed as he has in the past.
Putin has pushed and played the global powers for years. Too often his threats have had an effect. Too often his moves against others managed only condemnation and minor sanctions from the world. The small countries that border Russia are too afraid to poke the bear and suffer the consequences.
And through all this, Putin convinced himself of his own greatness and appeal in the world. He came to believe Ukrainians would welcome him and his armies. He spread lies about their leadership and the state of their country, but the only one he gaslighted was himself. And the resistance they have mounted has inspired the opposition within Russia to come to the streets in protest – even while those protests have been made illegal and they risk prison for demonstrating.
Putin deluded himself. He was convinced that he had effectively neutered America through propaganda that encouraged civil unrest, and stoke divisions along racial and cultural lines. He convinced himself that such actions had also weakened NATO sufficiently to stifle that organization.
He now faces a real possibility, or even probability, of losing power. Even oligarchs who grew rich by supporting his corrupt regime are speaking out against him. Even members of his government are joining together to voice objection to this war and laying the blame at Putin’s feet.
The big question that remains to the world is whether his narcissism and anger will cause him to burn it all down around him.
To quote Ahab from Melville’s Moby Dick, ” …from hell’s heart I stab at thee; …for hate’s sake I spit my last breath at thee.”
Here’s hoping humanity prevails.